Save articles for later
Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.
Six teams remain in the premiership race with two semi-finals to determine who plays the Brisbane Lions and Collingwood in the preliminary finals.
Carlton could force Melbourne out of the finals in straight sets for the second season in a row if they can ride their wave of momentum for another week, while Port Adelaide will be under pressure as they look to keep their chances of making the grand final alive, having not made the last Saturday in September in 2020 and 2021 after finishing top four. They are beaten up and face the Giants, who have lost just two games – one to Port Adelaide in Adelaide – in their past 12 matches.
1. Collingwood
Injury list: Nick Daicos is expected to return for the preliminary final after being out since round 21 with a hairline fracture of his leg.
Flag chances: They are in the box seat with a home preliminary final against a non-Victorian team, Port Adelaide or the GWS Giants, at the MCG and are free of injury. Their biggest concern is Brayden Maynard’s tribunal appearance, which puts him in doubt for the remaining two finals.
Nick Daicos won’t have played since round 21 when he returns but Collingwood expect him to be in good shape.Credit: AFL Photos
2. Brisbane Lions
Injury list: Veteran Jack Gunston (knee) and Daniel Rich (hamstring) are the only concerns at the Lions, with Will Ashcroft (knee) out for the season. Hugh McCluggage left the ground with a sore hip in the first half of the qualifying final but returned to play without discomfort.
Flag chances: The club’s second home preliminary final in four seasons, but they are much more mature and better equipped, with Joe Daniher, Josh Dunkley, Jaspa Fletcher and Conor McKenna in the team than they were when they lost to Geelong at the Gabba in 2020. Take me home Gabba Road should be the theme as they have won their past six against Collingwood, past five against the Giants and six of their past seven against Port Adelaide.
3. Port Adelaide
Injury list: Dylan Williams (hamstring) is likely to miss and key defender Trent McKenzie is also in doubt after rolling his ankle. Charlie Dixon (foot) is not certain to return for the semi-final but Port Adelaide are hopeful, while the skipper Tom Jonas (calf) is also unavailable.
Zak Butters is crucial to Port Adelaide’s flag hopes.Credit: Getty Images
Room for improvement: The Lions scored 13.3 (81) from stoppages, which was disappointing for Port Adelaide given their midfield was probably where they matched the Lions on paper. They kicked inaccurately when the game was up for grabs and their defence could not hold up when momentum went Brisbane’s way from midway through the third quarter. They have only conceded one bigger score this season.
Watch out for: Ollie Lord was outstanding in his first final, kicking four goals while also keeping intercept-marking defender Harris Andrews honest throughout. Willem Drew was also a shining light, blanketing Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale and restricting him to 19 disposals, and he may get the job on the Giants’ Josh Kelly. Familiar faces Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis are the keys to Port Adelaide’s competitiveness, so they must perform at a high level for them to beat the Giants.
Flag chances: They are down to the last six, so they are a better chance than they were at the start of the season, but that is about all. Despite finishing third, Port Adelaide’s chances are drifting as their defence is undermanned and undersized and their key forward Charlie Dixon, if he does play, will be underdone. But they will still consider themselves a real threat as they beat the Giants convincingly in round 21 and will know from bitter experience that when it comes down to the top four teams, it’s Russian Roulette football.
4. Melbourne
Injury list: Angus Brayshaw (concussion) will miss as will Jacob van Rooyen (suspension), while possible inclusion James Harmes (suspected hamstring) was hurt in a VFL scratch match. They are also missing key forwards Jake Melksham (knee) and Harrison Petty (foot) for the season.
Room for improvement: They need to remember how to score. They recorded 32 more inside 50s than Collingwood, with 19 inside 50s to Collingwood’s four in the final quarter, but they failed to execute their skills under scoreboard pressure. The focus will be on whether Brodie Grundy replaces van Rooyen, but the reality is Melbourne had their chances but didn’t take them. They missed set shots and sprayed the ball when chances arose in play, lacking poise in the big moments. The quality of entries will rarely be high in finals but what separates teams and players is whether they take their chances. It’s up to Melbourne.
Max Gawn was outstanding in the qualifying final but needs to back up his form against Carlton.Credit: AFL Photos
Watch out for: Max Gawn and Christian Petracca are champions capable of resurrecting the Demons’ finals campaign with match-winning performances, but it showed against Collingwood that they can’t do it on their own. Petracca was quiet early but neither could have done much more in the second half against the Magpies. The midfield will hit up short targets more often against Carlton and stretch their defence rather than kicking it high, while Kysaiah Pickett will not be as wasteful as he was in the qualifying final. It’s probably time to put Petracca forward.
Flag chances: The Demons are up to their necks in the flag race, but they have made life harder for themselves, having to play Carlton then the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba to even make the grand final. They will also do without key midfielder Angus Brayshaw for at least one week, and perhaps more, while no one in their forward line has form.
5. Carlton
Injury list: Harry McKay (concussion) will miss and Jack Martin (suspension) has a nervous week ahead at the tribunal. Blake Acres is battling on with a collarbone injury and showing he can play under adversity.
Room for improvement: They worried more about losing than winning the game late against Sydney as they pushed a number behind the ball earlier than they would have liked in an attempt to arrest the Swans’ momentum. It was fortunate they kicked a goal against the run of play or the game may have been lost. Having said that, their final 30 seconds was better than they had showed in tight games last season as they clogged space and kept the ball in tight.
Jack Silvagni could line up for the Blues in the semi-final against Melbourne.Credit: Getty Images
Watch out for: The Blues could consider favourite son Jack Silvagni to replace Harry McKay, who has been placed in the concussion protocols. Silvagni could play a defensive role on the intercept-marking Jake Lever to keep the ball inside the Blues’ forward 50. The hard-running Sam Walsh was impressive in his first final and Adam Cerra will be even better for the run. They face a huge challenge against the more seasoned Petracca and Oliver. If they can break even, the Blues could get enough inside 50s to win.
Flag chances: The road is still uphill as they face Melbourne then Brisbane at the Gabba, but they have momentum and volcanic support as their fans erupt. They have now won 10 of their past 11 matches and are confident in their game style that centres around contested ball and stoppage dominance. But they have to regroup quickly after such elation on Friday night.
6. GWS
Injury list: Expect Stephen Coniglio to have recovered from the eye injury that kept him out of the elimination final, which will mean all their key players are available.
Room for improvement: The Giants have a rebounding game style which is brilliant to watch, but they have added a forward half game that makes them much harder to beat. Their start against St Kilda was good and they need to continue that trend because they lost six of their seven first quarters in the final seven matches of the home-and-away season.
The Giants’ Tom Green is an emerging star of the competition.Credit: Getty Images
Watch out for: Josh Kelly is a star and back in career best form, while Toby Greene is a champion of the game, withhis ability to read the ball off the pack better than anyone in the competition. Finn Callaghan is only in his second season, but his ball use through the middle is elite, with a raking left foot piercing opposition defences. Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford are superb in the high half forward roles helping the team turn the ball over in the front and back half of their midfield. Midfield bull Tom Green plays in the style of former Swan Josh Kennedy. He is so strong for a 22-year-old and shapes as a future captain.
Flag chances: It’s tough to win four finals to win the flag but the Giants are capable of doing so having reached the grand final from the elimination final in 2019. They have hardened, experienced finals campaigners in Kelly, Greene, Lachie Whitfield, Harrison Himmelberg and Callan Ward. The Giants remain long odds to win the flag, but their presence in the preliminary final would threaten Collingwood more than Port Adelaide.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.
Most Viewed in Sport
From our partners
Source: Read Full Article