The undulating track can make it difficult for visiting horses and with the rail in the true position, inside gates will help the on-speed runners.
The local trainers are more than capable of taking on their city counterparts and that is where we will go in search of profit.
Race 1 – Maiden Plate 1000m
The revealed form points to the speedy REALITY (3) which had to be used up from an outside gate and did all but win when resuming over this trip at Eagle Farm. Fitter now, she gets all the favours from gate two and with Jim Orman staying aboard is the one to beat.
GALA RAIN (8) is resuming after placing at two of five outings. Her recent trial was sound and Lindsay Gough has a good record of getting then ready first-up.
I’M HITCHIN’ BRO (1) is resuming after a break and has had jumpouts. He was supported on debut when well-beaten at Sunshine Coast and the Sears stable strike at 25 percent on their home track.
SOUND OF SLEAT (14) showed speed before getting tired in the same race as REALITY (3) at Eagle Farm. She will strip fitter, gets a heap of gear changes and Barry Lockwood doesn’t bring them up the range for nothing.
QWICK (2) had support and ran on to place at debut here over 1110m. This is harder but blinkers, a tongue-tie and 3kg claim for Sheriden Tomlinson are all positives. If they go too hard in front, QWICK (2) will be strong late.
Betting Strategy: REALITY (3) should win but won’t be value odds
Race 2 – Fillies And Mares Class 3 Plate 1300m
Kris Lees has brought ELEGANT GRACE (1) up to Toowoomba looking for a quick kill and her form is far superior to these having won on the Kensington track at Randwick three starts back in a midweek Fillies and Mares Benchmark 72 over 1550m beating Joliette. She failed last start when trying to qualify for the Provincial Championships but form around the likes of Brookspire and Harmony Rose should be good enough. With Andrew Mallyon from gate two she has the speed to be prominent and just has to handle the tricky track.
RED BLOOM (3) was beaten at odds-on here when resuming after a freshen-up but her previous form was strong, winning twice at Ipswich before placing behind Wren’s Day in a Saturday Class 3 Plate at Eagle Farm over 1400m. Trained locally by Tony Sears and ridden by Ben Thompson, she looks the main danger.
I PROMISE YOU (8) was well supported and was too sharp for Queen Sweeper when resuming from a nine-week break at Eagle Farm in a Class 1 Handicap over 1200m. This much harder but she shows promise, Larry Cassidy rides and she has the speed to be prominent.
WINTER RAIN (6) has been up a while but loves this track and distance. She disappointed last start but had won three on end prior and change of rider to Madeleine Wishart may help.
VINASTA (5) has won three and hasn’t missed a placed in her past eight starts, the most recent being a Class 2 Plate win here over this trip. This is harder, she rises 2kg and the gate is no help but consistency cannot be ignored
Betting Strategy: Two units to win on ELEGANT GRACE (1)
Race 3 – Colts, Geldings and Entires Class 3 Plate 1300m
Steve Tregea has a 45 percent strike rate this season for his runners at Toowoomba and the lightly-raced NO INUENDO (8) has upside. He ran down the well-supported Kravitz here over this trip at his last outing in Class 1 and whilst this harder will get the gun run from the inside gate with Wendy Peel claiming 3kg. A winner of his past two starts here, NO INUENDO (8) can handle the class rise.
SAFADO (4) hasn’t won for over two years but has form in far better company and Kris Lees has brought him here to see if he still knows how to win. He ran sixth in a Provincial Championships Qualifier last start which followed a close second to Napoleon Solo when run down late over 1400m in a midweek Benchmark 78 on the Kensington track. He is well treated under plate conditions and gets his chance with Andrew Mallyon.
MR SO AND SO (3) is another that hasn’t won for a long time but was only run down late on a very heavy track at the Sunshine Coast last start in a Class 4 Handicap over 1300m under 61.5kg. With Justin Huxtable’s claim he is well treated with 57.5kg and should be near the speed for a long way.
DISARMED (5) lost all chance when he reared at the start last outing. He is now third-up and won his only previous start this track and distance. From gate two Matt McGillivray can go forward and take luck out of the equation.
Betting Strategy: Two units to win on NO INUENDO (8)
Race 4 – Maiden Handicap 1300m
120 starts for 29 placings between the 17 acceptors says this isn’t a strong field and the best ride may win.
Lindsay Hatch is striking at 32 percent at Toowoomba this season and whilst DIRECT DRIVE (4) has had plenty of chances he resumed with a good second here over 1200m behind Better Get Ready and with Noel Callow fresh off a treble at the Gold Coast last Saturday can take advantage of gate one.
CRAYON (2) hasn’t been helped by wide gates at both starts since resuming and fought on gamely under Michael Rodd to place behind Alatar at Ipswich over 1200m. He has drawn the carpark again but this is his home track and with Rodd staying aboard can overcome the gate.
I AM SUPERIOR (9) hasn’t been far away at his past two outings and was finishing off well at the Gold Coast over 1200m when third behind Groomed. He meets a weaker field here, the 1300m should suit and with Larry Cassidy will be finishing strongly.
TWILIGHT PHENOMENA (3) was in the same race as I AM SUPERIOR (9) and put in an improved effort at only his second outing when finishing on the heels of the placegetters. Blinkers go on and with Andrew Mallyon he will get a good run from gate six.
SPLASHING ROSSA (10) has now had the three outings for Mark Currie and wasn’t beaten far at Kilcoy over 1200m. This isn’t much harder and with Madeleine Wishart claiming 3kg and riding from gate four will be near the speed throughout.
Betting Strategy: This race may be weak enough for DIRECT DRIVE (4) but I am staying out
Race 5 – Benchmark 68 Handicap 1850m
Tempo will dictate the outcome and MT MORT SHARK (10) resumed witha good win over 1666m at Ipswich. He wasn’t disgraced in strong three-year-old company last preparation and may have higher aspirations than this Benchmark 68. If he is to perform well later in the Winter Carnival he needs to produce at this level.
The stablemate THE MINIVAN (6) gets plenty of racing but rarely runs poorly. He has won once and hasn’t missed a place at four tries here over the 1850m. His last win came with Matt McGillivray aboard and he will improve into the race from the 600m and finish off.
Lindsay Hatch and Noel Callow combine with BETTER ETHICS (2) which won narrowly here in Benchmark 65 class last start over 1625m. He has won over 1800m before and fourth-up can race with cover and strong late.
LOUIE LA’JOY (3) was run down by BETTER ETHICS (2) last start but has a better record over this trip and with Nathan Fazackerley’s claim he can be the one controlling the speed.
The Chris Waller-trained SACRED SUITE (4) is now third-up and should be nearing a win after his good third to Racing Paradise at Eagle Farm over 1600m in this class last start. SACRED SUITE (4) has won over 1700m twice and if he gets the right tempo Luke Dittman can have him charging late.
Betting Strategy: Interested to see how MT MORT SHARK (10) goes and prepared to risk a unit to win.
Race 6 – QTIS Three-Year-Old Class 3 Handicap 1200m
A strong three-year-old race for a midweek at Toowoomba with several having higher aspirations.
The locally-trained MAYA BAY (5) ran second to Xerri when resuming at the Sunshine Coast and then scored a facile win here over 1000m in a Benchmark 62. He steps up to 1200m against his own age group and has won both outings here. With Ben Thompson MAYA BAY (5) will sit near the speed and be hard to pass.
EELLOH (2) didn’t come up last preparation and after three disappointing outings Desleigh Forster sent her for a spell. She has had one trial and on her earlier form which included two wins in Saturday class is up to this grade. Mark du Plessis rides and the trainer can get them to fire first-up.
CORVO (3) is resuming and whilst he didn’t win last preparation all his outings were in Saturday grade. With Michael Rodd riding for Tony Gollan he can show up fresh.
The Steve Tregea-trained ELOQUENTLY (9) annihilated them in a moderate Maiden here last start. Whilst this is much harder the trainer can never be ignored.
HE’S THE NEWS (4) only battled when resuming over 1050m at Doomben in Saturday Quality company but will find this much easier and can improve.
Betting Strategy: Will just be watching.
Race 7- Open Handicap 1000m
Tony Sears may have found the right race for PIRACY (3) which isn’t the easiest to follow but his second to Skins over 1110m at Doomben in a Benchmark 78 stands up to scrutiny and from a good gate with Georgina Cartwright he will get every chance. PIRACY (3)’s last three wins have all been at 1000m when ridden by female jockeys and that is enough to sway me.
The one with recent form on his side is KING KLAUS (2) which has won seven of 13 starts and bolted in last start at the Sunshine Coast over 1000m on a heavy (10). This is his first start at Toowoomba and his best form is on soft ground but over this trip from a good gate will give them something to chase.
ICONIC STAR (8) has struggled at both outings since resuming but this is a big drop in class from Listed level on a Saturday at Eagle Farm. With 54kg she is well placed and four of six wins have been at this trip. With Jim Byrne from gate one she gets all the favours and just has to run up to her best form to be in the finish.
Betting Strategy: Have a liking for PIRACY (3) and will have one unit to win.
Race 8- Benchmark 72 Handicap 1200m
Tony Gollan has found a very suitable race for the resuming REALLY DISCREET (7) which at her only start for the stable placed behind Thine Is The Power in a Saturday Benchmark 80 after having a torrid run. Her South Australian and Victorian form where she placed at Listed level is far better than any of these and with Jim Byrne from a good gate only needs to run up to her recent trial win to account for these.
Noel Callow has already combined successfully with Paul Nolan at the midweeks and could get another on the board with SPENDING MY TIME (11) which ran on strongly when resuming here in a Benchmark 70 over 1000m.
DIS DAH WUN (8) found Saturday grade on a hard Eagle Farm track too much last start but has won both outings here and will find this easier. Jim Orman rides from gate five, she gets a crossover nose band and will be the one they have to run down.
TRAIL OF GLORY (2) just missed when resuming here in a Benchmark 70 over 1210m. He improves second-up and has an excellent record at this track with two wins and four placings from seven starts. The 3kg claim for Wendy Peel helps and whilst he will get back in running will be strong late.
Betting Strategy: Three units to win on REALLY DISCREET (7)
BEST BET: REALLY DISCREET (Race 8 No 7)
NEXT BEST: ELEGANT GRACE (Race 2 No 1)
VALUE BET: PIRACY (Race 7 No 3)
Quaddie numbers are:
Race 5: 2,3,6,10
Race 6: 2,3,5,9
Race 7: 2,3,8
Race 8: 7,11
Originally published asGraeme Carey previews Toowoomba Wednesday
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