Guide to every NFL Week 10 game: Picks, matchup nuggets, more

The NFL Week 10 schedule is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score picks.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy’s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk’s Dave Bearman hand out helpful nuggets as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 10 slate, including an NFC West showdown between the Seahawks and Rams.

Buccaneers (6-3) at Panthers (3-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
70.5 | Spread: TB -5.5 (50.5)

What to watch for: Keep an eye on the protection for Carolina quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He was sacked five times and pressured 15 times in a Week 2 loss to the Bucs. He threw two interceptions, and the Panthers’ offense never got into a rhythm. But when Bridgewater has been kept relatively clean, he has played well. — David Newton

Bold prediction: After being kept out of the end zone for the first time this season in a 38-3 loss to the Saints last Sunday night, Tom Brady and the Bucs rebound with a five-touchdown performance. Coming off their two previous losses earlier this season (Saints in Week 1 and Bears in Week 5), the Bucs combined for 69 points (nine touchdowns) in Week 2 and Week 6. One of those games came against the Panthers, who are still struggling to get off the field on third down and can’t get to the quarterback. — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Buccaneers are allowing just 77.9 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush this season, both the best in the NFL. And the Panthers will likely be without starting running back Christian McCaffrey.

Injuries: Buccaneers | Panthers

What to know for fantasy: Brady struggled all night long in Week 9 on his way to 2.4 fantasy points. But in the games immediately following his past four single-digit performances, the future Hall of Famer has averaged 21.3 fantasy points. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Brady is 19-6 against the spread (ATS) in his career after a loss, with 17 covers in his past 20 such games. And he’s 7-1 ATS coming off a 20-plus-point loss. However, Bridgewater is 21-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, including five straight covers as an underdog this season. Read more.

Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 21
Newton’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 64.5% (by an average of 5.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: How can Bucs’ Brady and Evans get back on track? … Panthers rookie Chinn harder to replace than McCaffrey … Breaking down what went wrong for Bucs in worst loss of Brady’s career … Bridgewater will give best Brady look to end Panthers’ skid

Jaguars (1-7) at Packers (6-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
47.1 | Spread: GB -13 (49.5)

What to watch for: The Packers don’t lose to teams like this often. They’re 14-3 in games against teams with a winning percentage of .125 or worse with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. And Rodgers is 15-2 in his career as at least a 12-point favorite. The only two losses came in 2018 to Arizona as a 13.5-point favorite and in 2011 at Kansas City as a 13-point favorite. — Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: Jacksonville QB Jake Luton will be sacked at least four times on Sunday. The Packers don’t blitz a lot — they rank 25th in that area — but is there a better time to break tendencies than when facing a rookie QB making just his second start? Luton completed just four of 13 passes and threw an interception when he was under pressure in his debut against Houston, and while the Packers have blitzed 69 times this season, they have picked up five of their 17 sacks when doing so. — Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: Per Elias Sports Bureau data, Green Bay receiver Davante Adams joined Calvin Johnson (2012) as the only players in NFL history with three games of at least 10 receptions, 150 receiving yards and a receiving TD in a season — and Adams has played only six games this year.

Injuries: Jaguars | Packers

What to know for fantasy: Jaguars running back James Robinson has six games with more than 14.5 fantasy points this season. The only running backs with more such games are a pair of guys you’ve likely heard of: Alvin Kamara (eight) and Dalvin Cook (seven). See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in games that follow a loss this season. And Green Bay is 5-1 ATS against teams with losing records. Read more.

DiRocco’s pick: Packers 31, Jaguars 17
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 33, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: GB, 90.7% (by an average of 17.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jags QB Luton to start again for injured Minshew … Good luck, bad luck or another word for Packers’ changing injury situation … Jaguars find mild success blitzing, but next opponents handle it well … Packers’ Rodgers says NFL’s virus policy has double standards

Texans (2-6) at Browns (5-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
38.4 | Spread: CLE -3.5 (48)

What to watch for: Cleveland running back Nick Chubb, who has been out since Week 4 with a knee injury, is expected to return Sunday. The Browns were leading the NFL in rushing when Chubb was healthy, and they will look to get rolling on the ground once again. — Jake Trotter

Bold prediction: Regardless of who starts at running back for the Browns, the team will rush for more than 175 yards. Before Chubb injured his knee on Oct. 4, Cleveland led the league in rushing, but it has ranked 24th since then with 96 rushing yards per game. Chubb could be activated from injured reserve in time to play the Texans on Sunday, and a date against the last-place rushing defense (Houston is allowing an average of 159.5 rushing yards per game) could be the ticket to get the Browns’ running game back on track. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson has six straight games with multiple passing touchdowns, the second-longest active streak in the NFL after Seattle’s Russell Wilson (nine).

Injuries: Texans | Browns

What to know for fantasy: Texans receiver Will Fuller V’s 2.43 fantasy points per target rank second among qualified receivers, right on the heels of DK Metcalf’s 2.46. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Houston is 0-5 ATS as an underdog and 0-4 ATS on the road this season. Overall, the Texans’ 1-7 ATS mark is tied with the Jets for the second-worst ATS mark. Read more.

Barshop’s pick: Browns 27, Texans 20
Trotter’s pick: Browns 31, Texans 27
FPI prediction: CLE, 61.7% (by an average of 4.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Watson: Would’ve been hell if Texans traded Fuller … Chubb’s return will power Browns … Is Baker better without OBJ?

Eagles (3-4-1) at Giants (2-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
29.1 | Spread: PHI -3.5 (44.5)

What to watch for: The Giants should have won the first matchup, but this might be a different Eagles offense they’re facing several weeks later. Middle linebacker Blake Martinez even conceded that. The Eagles could have right tackle Lane Johnson, guard Isaac Seumalo, running back Miles Sanders, tight end Dallas Goedert and wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor playing this time around, and that should make a noticeable difference. — Jordan Raanan

Bold prediction: Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz will account for four touchdowns. With the Eagles coming off a bye, he has had a chance to take a step back and recalibrate following a rocky first half. He’ll quiet the voices calling for Jalen Hurts, as well as the ones wistful for Nick Foles (hello, Brett Favre), by taking it to the Giants’ defense, which is ranked 25th against the pass. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: Giants QB Daniel Jones has lost 16 straight games against all opponents not named Washington. Part of the problem is obviously turnovers. Jones has 36 since the start of last season, the most in the NFL, and he has had at least one in 20 of 22 career games played. But Wentz has a turnover in eight straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Both QBs rank in the top three in interceptions this season (Wentz is No. 1 with 12, Jones third with nine).

Injuries: Eagles | Giants

What to know for fantasy: The Eagles’ Travis Fulgham has been a top-15 fantasy receiver in three of his past four games, and the Giants are the 10th most susceptible defense in terms of WR scoring this season. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: The over is 23-10-2 in Philadelphia road games since the start of the 2016 season. Read more.

McManus’ pick: Eagles 31, Giants 22
Raanan’s pick: Eagles 32, Giants 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 64.8% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Pederson backs QB Wentz after Favre’s comments … Improving Giants defense is no longer a pushover for opposing offenses … Graham, the Eagles’ smack-talking force and energy source

Washington (2-6) at Lions (3-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
18.4 | Spread: DET -3.5 (46.5)

What to watch for: Alex Smith is again a starting NFL quarterback. He is expected to start for Washington on Sunday for the first time since he broke his right leg on Nov. 18, 2018. Smith’s journey is one that Lions players have heavily respected. Linebacker Reggie Ragland, Smith’s former teammate in Kansas City, said despite COVID-19 protocols, he’s going to give Smith a hug, while running back Kerryon Johnson called Smith’s return “absolutely tremendous. It is admirable.” — Michael Rothstein

Bold prediction: Washington running back Antonio Gibson will crack 100 yards for the second time this season, but it won’t be enough. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford will throw two touchdown passes and drop Washington to 0-4 against quarterbacks ranked in the top 18 for Total QBR this season. — John Keim

Stat to know: Washington has lost five straight road games going back to 2019, and it has averaged 17 points per game in those five losses. But the Lions are 2-9 at home since the start of the 2019 season, the worst record at home in the NFL over that span. They are one of two teams still seeking their first home win this season (Jets).

Injuries: Washington | Lions

What to know for fantasy: Washington running back J.D. McKissic has been a top-27 running back in three of his past four games and accounted for one-third of Smith’s completions in Week 9. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Detroit is 2-9 ATS since the start of last season in the month of November or later, and it has failed to cover at home this season (0-3 ATS). Read more.

Keim’s pick: Lions 23, Washington 21
Rothstein’s pick: Lions 27, Washington 24
FPI prediction: DET, 53.0% (by an average of 1.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Smith a starter again … Lions showing no signs of improvement … Wrestling matches bonded Griffen and Peterson

Bills (7-2) at Cardinals (5-3)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
66.6 | Spread: ARI -2.5 (56)

What to watch for: How will the Bills handle Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray’s running ability? Buffalo is allowing an average of 4.6 yards per carry, and Murray is averaging 7.1. He’s coming off the first 100-yard rushing game of his career, and if he can pick up against Buffalo where he left off last week, the Bills will have to figure out who to focus on defensively: Murray or the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in the passing game. How the Bills decide to attack Arizona’s offense will dictate how the matchup goes. — Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: Arizona will total fewer than 350 yards of offense for just the second time this season, as a healing Bills defense continues to round into its 2019 form. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Cardinals rank second in pass block win rate this season, while the Bills rank fourth in pass rush win rate (via ESPN metrics powered by NFL Next Gen Stats).

Injuries: Bills | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy: Murray is one of three players over the past four weeks with 225 rushing yards and three rushing scores. Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry are the others. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Buffalo is 1-4 ATS both over its past five games overall and in its past five road games. Read more.

Louis-Jacques’ pick: Bills 31, Cardinals 24
Weinfuss’ pick: Bills 34, Cardinals 31
FPI prediction: ARI, 58.4% (by an average of 2.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bills’ Allen never wants to leave after fans honor late grandmother … ‘He gives me anxiety’: How teams prepare for Cardinals’ Murray … Dawkins doesn’t want to compare 7-2 Bills to Kelly’s era: ‘They hold the crown’ … Irked at PI call, Cards’ Peterson wants more refs

Broncos (3-5) at Raiders (5-3)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
39.4 | Spread: LV -4 (50.5)

What to watch for: Buckle up for the first head-to-head matchup between the first two wideouts — and former college teammates at Alabama — taken in the historically deep 2020 NFL draft receiver class. The Raiders’ Henry Ruggs III, taken 12th overall, has been hot and cold for Las Vegas with just 10 catches but a 22.0 yards-per-catch average. And Jerry Jeudy, the No. 15 overall pick, leads Denver with 484 receiving yards on 30 receptions with two scores. — Paul Gutierrez

Bold prediction: The Broncos will have two rushing touchdowns. Why? Because almost everybody has had two rushing touchdowns against the Raiders this season. Six of their eight opponents, including both of their previous home opponents, have had exactly two rushing touchdowns. The Broncos have just seven rushing TDs over their first eight games, with only one of those coming from RB Phillip Lindsay. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has the third-best TD-to-INT ratio this season (8.0). He has thrown 16 touchdowns to two interceptions.

Injuries: Broncos | Raiders

What to know for fantasy: Jeudy scored more points last week than in his prior three games combined, and now he faces a Raiders defense that has allowed not one, not two, not three, but four receivers to score north of 22 points. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: The over is 7-1 in Las Vegas games this season, tied with New Orleans for the highest over percentage this season. Read more.

Legwold’s pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 21
Gutierrez’s pick: Raiders 26, Broncos 24
FPI prediction: LV, 60.6% (by an average of 3.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Solving Lock: Keys to unlocking the Broncos quarterback … More than Silver and Black smoke and mirrors, Raiders simply stacking wins … Broncos rookie receiver Jeudy is ‘hitting his stride’ … Gruden: Raiders’ Johnson ‘baptized’ with game-saving plays … Broncos can show progress in the second half

Chargers (2-6) at Dolphins (5-3)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
38.9 | Spread: MIA -1 (48.5)

What to watch for: It’s Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 pick in 2020 draft) vs. Justin Herbert (No. 6), and though both players may say the right things this week, it’s in a competitor’s nature to want to outduel one of the other top QBs in his class. Herbert got a head start, beginning his career in Week 2 and throwing for 17 TDs to just five interceptions. But Tagovailoa heads into his third start with the advantage in wins (2-0 vs. 1-6), and he’s coming off a tantalizing performance against Kyler Murray’s Cardinals. Quite a duel. — Cameron Wolfe

Bold prediction: Chargers edge rusher Joey Bosa will return and have six pressures against Tagovailoa. He missed last week’s game in the concussion protocol. — Shelley Smith

Stat to know: All six of the Chargers’ losses this season have been one-score games, tied for the most such losses within a team’s first eight games in NFL history, per Elias Sports Bureau data (1944 Brooklyn Tigers, 1983 Buccaneers and 2015 Ravens).

Injuries: Chargers | Dolphins

What to know for fantasy: Since making his debut in Week 2, Herbert ranks as QB4 on a per-game basis (24.3). He is in the top 10 at the position in rushing yards, passing yards and fantasy points per pass attempt. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Miami has covered in four consecutive games, is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season and is 15-5 ATS since its Week 5 bye last season — the best mark in the league. Read more.

Smith’s pick: Chargers 27, Dolphins 23
Wolfe’s pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 23
FPI prediction: MIA, 64.5% (by an average of 5.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ballage hoping to build on banner debut with Chargers … Dolphins’ Tagovailoa reflects on one year since hip injury: ‘Don’t know if I’ll ever be my old self’ … Dolphins WR Williams heads to injured reserve with foot injury

Seahawks (6-2) at Rams (5-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
79.7 | Spread: LAR -2 (54.5)

What to watch for: The Seahawks’ offense ranks among the best in the league and leads the NFL in scoring, averaging 34.3 points per game. However, the Rams’ defense is stout under first-year coordinator Brandon Staley and is allowing an average of 19 points per game, second best in the league. The Seahawks’ offense will be the Rams’ greatest test since they fell in Week 3 to the Bills, who also defeated the Seahawks, in Week 9. Watch for defensive tackle Aaron Donald to try to disrupt QB Russell Wilson, whom he has sacked 12 times in his career, more than any other quarterback. — Lindsey Thiry

Bold prediction: Donald and Seahawks safety Jamal Adams will combine for at least four sacks. The Seahawks have been the NFL’s most blitz-heavy team over the past two weeks as they try to help a pass defense that’s getting gashed at a historic rate. And Donald is tied for the NFL lead in sacks with nine and could be facing a backup center Sunday if Ethan Pocic’s concussion keeps him from playing. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: The Rams have allowed the fewest completions on throws 20-plus yards downfield this season (5-of-23) and are the only team that has yet to allow a passing TD on such a play. But Wilson has seven touchdowns on those throws this season (tied for second in the NFL).

Injuries: Seahawks | Rams

What to know for fantasy: Over the past two seasons, Rams QB Jared Goff is averaging 331.8 passing yards in his four meetings with the Seahawks, and Seattle isn’t stopping anyone right now. Week 9 marked the third time this season that a QB scored more than 34 fantasy points against them. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Since drafting Wilson in 2012, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best mark in the NFL over that span. Read more.

Henderson’s pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 26
Thiry’s pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 26
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.7% (by an average of 2.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Seahawks have (mostly) protected Wilson better, but here comes Donald … NFC West roundtable: Why the Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers would win the NFC East … Carroll has to fix Seahawks’ leaky defense before it sabotages season … Rams have ‘sick taste’ going into bye, more difficult portion of schedule

49ers (4-5) at Saints (6-2)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
79.5 | Spread: NO -10 (49)

What to watch for: The Saints have emerged as one of the NFL’s hottest teams. But they need to avoid a letdown against a 49ers team that has been decimated by injuries. San Francisco’s thrilling 48-46 win in the Superdome last season should provide added motivation. — Mike Triplett

Bold prediction: Saints receiver Michael Thomas will deliver his first big game of the season, going for 110-plus yards and at least one touchdown. In last year’s meeting with San Francisco, he posted 11 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown. Opposing offenses have been moving their top receivers around to get them matched up against Niners cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who is allowing a 109.9 passer rating against when he’s the nearest defender. If Moseley is still starting this week, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Saints coach Sean Payton does the same with Thomas. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: The 49ers are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since Weeks 10-13 of 2018. They have a 22-8 record with Jimmy Garoppolo (IR, ankle) as the starting QB since 2017, but they are just 5-22 with anyone else in that span.

Injuries: 49ers | Saints

What to know for fantasy: Since Week 5, the 49ers are a bottom-10 defense in opponent completion percentage (67.9%). And Saints QB Drew Brees has completed 78.9% of his passes over his past three games. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Since the start of last season, San Francisco is 9-3 ATS on the road, the third-best mark in the NFL over that span, and 6-1 ATS as a road underdog (second best). Read more.

Wagoner’s pick: Saints 37, 49ers 20
Triplett’s pick: Saints 30, 49ers 19
FPI prediction: NO, 60.7% (by an average of 3,7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rice expects ‘big things’ from 49ers rookie Aiyuk … NFL sack leaders: Donald, Garrett and Saints’ Hendrickson? … 49ers, Bourne cleared of any COVID-19 protocol violations, source says … NFC West roundtable: Why the Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers would win the NFC East

Bengals (2-5-1) at Steelers (8-0)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
53.5 | Spread: PIT -7.5 (47.5)

What to watch for: All eyes will be on Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger this weekend. He is eligible to come off the reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday, and the Steelers are preparing as though he’ll play. If he does indeed take the field on Sunday, then he’ll be doing so with only one team walk-through and on two knees that were sore after a hit against the Cowboys. He should feel comforted that the Bengals have only 11 sacks this season and traded one of their biggest defensive anchors in Carlos Dunlap. Without Roethlisberger, the Steelers could start either Mason Rudolph or Joshua Dobbs. — Brooke Pryor

Bold prediction: The Bengals will have fewer than 225 total yards. Cincinnati has been rolling recently behind rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, but against a quality defense, he could have one of the toughest games of his young career. — Ben Baby

Stat to know: The Steelers lead the NFL with 32 sacks and rank second in pass rush win rate this season, while the Bengals have allowed 28 sacks — tied for the second most in the NFL — and rank 27th in pass block win rate (win rates via ESPN metrics and NFL Next Gen Stats).

Injuries: Bengals | Steelers

What to know for fantasy: Big Ben has failed to get to 15.5 fantasy points in each of his past three divisional games. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: Over the past 10 seasons, Cincinnati is 31-16-2 ATS as a road underdog, the second-best cover percentage in the NFL in that situation over that span. Underdogs in general are 15-6-2 ATS in AFC North games since 2018. Read more.

Baby’s pick: Steelers 28, Bengals 14
Pryor’s pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 20
FPI prediction: PIT, 71.9% (by an average of 7.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Bengals’ offensive uptick bodes well for Taylor’s future … At 8-0, the Steelers are still a bit of a mystery … Roethlisberger among 4 added to Steelers’ COVID-19 list

Ravens (6-2) at Patriots (3-5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating:
74.7 | Spread: BAL -7 (43.5)

What to watch for: Can the Patriots play their second straight turnover-free game? That is their best chance to spring the upset. The Patriots have a minus-1 turnover differential on the season (tied for 18th), while the Ravens are plus-4 (tied for sixth). — Mike Reiss

Bold prediction: The Ravens will score over 40 points for the first time this season. During Baltimore’s 10-game road win streak, quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense have averaged more points (32.3) than anyone else away from home. New England, which gave up 37 points last season to the Ravens, has a banged-up defense working on a short week. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: The Patriots have failed to throw a passing touchdown in four straight games. A fifth straight game would match the second-longest streak in franchise history (1983 and 1988), and the franchise record of six games was set in 1972. One target to watch for the Pats’ efforts to break the streak is wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who had career highs in receiving yards (169), receptions (12), targets (14) and receiving first downs (8) in the Patriots’ win over the Jets on Monday.

Injuries: Ravens | Patriots

What to know for fantasy: Jackson has scored 40.7% of his fantasy points this season with his legs, a rate that isn’t much different from last season (40%). The deep ball has been the fantasy-scoring problem, as his points per deep attempt is down 36.3% this season. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Patriots have been a home underdog just three times in the past 15 seasons, winning each game outright. Read more.

Hensley’s pick: Ravens 41, Patriots 24
Reiss’ pick: Patriots 20, Ravens 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 66.3% (by an average of 5.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Harbaugh mum on Bryant’s role … Patriots’ Newton says neck sore from big Jets hit … Ravens show resilience after tough week … Patriots coach Belichick calls Jets exit ‘one of the great moments of my career’

Vikings (3-5) at Bears (5-4)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Matchup rating:
49.6 | Spread: MIN -2.5 (43)

What to watch for: Bears coach Matt Nagy is under tremendous pressure to fix the league’s worst offense, but he is 4-0 versus the Vikings since he took over in 2018 and 2-1 on Monday Night Football. For Nagy’s steak against Minnesota to continue, Chicago’s offense needs a wake-up call. The Bears average an abysmal 19.8 points and 82.6 rushing yards per game, and they rank 31st in third-down conversion (32.3%) and yards per play (4.81). On the flip side, the Vikings have allowed opponents to score 30-plus points on three separate occasions in 2020. — Jeff Dickerson

Bold prediction: Vikings running back Dalvin Cook is going to face a ton of loaded boxes, so it’s possible the Vikings will have to get into a dropback game with quarterback Kirk Cousins to win this one. The Bears’ defense knows how to exploit Minnesota’s weaknesses and will do so by sacking Cousins five times and not allowing him to complete a pass over 6 yards downfield. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday Night Football, the most consecutive losses by a starting QB to begin a career on MNF and the longest losing streak by a starting QB in MNF history.

Injuries: Vikings | Bears

What to know for fantasy: The Saints’ Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara have been great, right? Over the past two weeks, they’ve racked up 83.5 points between them. Well, over that stretch, Cook has 87.8 points — by himself. See Week 10 rankings.

Betting nugget: All five NFC North divisional games have gone over the total this season, after they were 9-3 to the under last season. Read more.

Cronin’s pick: Bears 20, Vikings 17
Dickerson’s pick: Vikings 21, Bears 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 59.1% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ defense getting back on track, but can it stay there? … Bears’ losing streak extends to three games … Bears’ O-line is in shambles

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